Dana King (Host): Alexander McAdie, officialearthquake forecaster for the U.
Weather Bureau, had a nighttime routine.
Alexander McAdie: For 20 years I have recordedevery earthquake I have felt.
I kept a daily log of earth movements.
My custom was to sleepwith my watch open and spectacles at bedside.
Notebook open to the date, and pencil ready.
Thesewere laid out in regular order.
Alexander McAdie: My record of 1906 Aprilcame in a frenzy.
First shaking was incredibly strong lasting over 40 seconds.
A strong aftershockhit 8 minutes later.
Another aftershock at 5:25.
And bedlam reigned.
More shaking at5:42.
And then the fires began.
Dana King: The temblor of April 18, 1906 cameout of the sea just offshore from San Francisco.
Moving northwest and southeast at more than7,000 miles an hour.
It had an explosive power equal to more than seven million tons of T-N-T.
Dana King: In this great violent movementof the earth tremors unleashed unimaginable devastation.
Streets buckled and humped intoundulating waves, and split open in deep gashes.
Buildings wood and concrete and glass collapsed,shattered, crushed, twisted, tangled and crumpled so that sidewalks were impassable.
Gas linesand water mains ruptured, sewer pipes smashed, electricity gone, trains and trolleys stopped.
No post or telegram.
People died pinned beneath the wrecks of buildings.
And the tremors wouldn'tstop on April 18th there were one hundred thirty five aftershocks.
The fires that followedwere even more destructive.
Without water fire could not be stopped.
For three daysSan Francisco was a blazing inferno.
Dana King: People think of April 18, 1906as the great "San Francisco" earthquake and fire.
But it was really a northern Californiaquake, ripping apart the earth over a distance of nearly 300 miles.
It was felt as far northas Coos Bay, Oregon.
As far south as Los Angeles.
As far east as central Nevada.
An area ofnearly 200,000 square miles.
It was registered on seismographs all around the world, includingLondon, Tokyo, Moscow, and Cape Town, South Africa.
First Responder: I don't know how the hellwe're going to get him out.
Dana King: Earthquakes are one of the deadliestof all natural disasters, and one of the hardest to predict.
Volcanoes typically show signsof unrest.
Earthquakes strike without warning.
How can scientists learn to predict the precisetime, place and magnitude of an impending earthquake? Dana King: In the hundred years since thegreat Northern California quake, science has made astounding progress in understandinghow to answer those questions.
In 1906 little was known or understood about earthquakes.
In fact, scientists didn't even know how they occurred.
Dana King: The earliest records of Californiaearthquakes were made by Padres running the missions.
The Catholic missions ran southto north in California.
Their adobe brick construction often crumbled due to earthquakeshaking.
Upkeep and maintenance of the isolated missions depended in part on careful recordkeeping to ensure a reliable flow of supplies and support from the Vatican in Rome.
Mary Lou Zoback: Following on that we reallydidn't have a lot of information until the time of the Gold Rush when many more peoplecame to the area.
Newspapers rose up all around and they recorded many earthquakes and keptcareful account.
And that was sort of what seismic record keeping was until the end ofthe century.
In 1887 the first seismometers were actually brought to the Bay area, veryearly models.
And they were brought here by astronomers from Lick Observatory who wereconcerned about how all these earth movements were affecting their astronomical observations.
In the 1906 earthquake the seismometers around the Bay area went off scale except for theone at the Lick Observatory and that's actually our first strong motion, that is strong shakingrecord of an earthquake.
The first real records of earthquakes were actually kept by peopleinterested in earthquakes and one of those, probably the best was Alexander McAdie, hewas with the U.
Weather Bureau, he'd been interested in earthquakes, he came to thisarea and started noting when they occurred and what there effects were.
Dana King: What followed the April 1906 quakewas really the beginning of earthquake science in the United States.
Old Scientist #1: Each person is going toresponsible for reporting on their own region, and getting this data together, so we canfigure out exactly what happened here.
Bill Ellsworth: Three days after the earthquakewith the City of San Francisco in ruin and damage and destruction all across northernCalifornia, the governor ordered the formation of an Earthquake Investigation Commission.
To look into the scientific origins of the earthquake the destruction it caused and tocome up with some answers.
Old Scientist #2: We're going to systematically.
Dana King: The scientists realized they hadnever seen anything like this before and were inspired to comprehensively study the quake.
They realized they needed to gather every shred of information, every remote piece ofdata.
Bill Ellsworth: Many of the important thingsthat they collected were the things that one can see just by directly walking out and lookingat the fault or looking at structures that were damaged.
What was the nature of movementof the fault, how much did the fault move? What are the consequences of the shaking ofthe ground in places of different soil types? Dana King: More than 20 scientists contributed.
They studied every seismic report from around the world.
They interviewed eyewitnesses.
They recorded every visible crack in the earth and every destroyed building.
They even lookedat eight years of tide gauge records prior to the earthquake and one year after.
Andthey discovered and walked every inch of the San Andreas Fault from southern to northernCalifornia about 700 miles.
Bill Ellsworth: That commission was chairedby Andrew Lawson, famous geologist at U.
And they produced a monumental reporton the earthquake.
Dana King: The report of the California EarthquakeInvestigation Commission is referred to informally as the Lawson Report.
Bill Ellsworth: The report came out in 1908and is still in use today.
It's one of the most important scientific compendiums of anearthquake and provides a rich basis for earthquake research even today.
Dana King: Modern technology has given todaysscientists the opportunity to re-interpret the Lawson Report and find out more aboutwhat actually happened in 1906.
Information they unearth can help forecast inevitableCalifornia quakes and help save lives when they occur.
Overlapping Voices:A violent shaking.
My bed was going up and down.
There were heaps of bricks and stone.
The wallwhile the building seemed to split.
Dana King: There was heavy damage as far awayas 60 miles from the fault.
Why was damage from shaking greater farther away from therift and what can scientists learn from that? Mary Lou Zoback: The attention to detail inthe Lawson Report of all the geological factors, features related to the earthquake was matchedby the attention to detail of the effects of the earthquake, that is the shaking intensity.
There are more reports of damage and shaking intensity in that report than we have forany other earthquake, even today.
Dana King: Shaking was one of the most obviousthings for the scientists to analyze immediately after the earthquake.
You could see it.
Youcould easily record all of the damage.
Mary Lou Zoback: The Commission members collectedall kinds of personal reports, gathered reports from newspapers and what they found was ingeneral, as you might expect, the shaking decreased as you went with distance from thefault, but what they found locally the shaking intensity most depended on what was rightunderground.
The shaking was lowest on hard rock and greatest on soft material and inparticular the highest shaking intensities we found on Bay Fill, that is made land createdby filling in the Bay.
Often very poorly consolidated.
Another good example of that is the town ofSanta Rosa that sits well off the fault.
It had actually the greatest intensity of shakingper square area of any town.
And that was in part because it sits on a large basin ofsoft material and may actually be related to things going on on the fault.
Dana King: Research in shaking over the yearshas led to shake maps.
Today seismographs record the shaking at more than a thousandsites in California.
High performance computers and advanced instrumentation have given scientiststhe capability to analyze data in a whole new way.
Shake maps depict where shaking willbe most likely when an earthquake occurs at a specific location.
They show how strongthe shaking will be which is critical information for designing buildings and structures thatwill resist shaking.
Dana King: Real-time shake-maps are availablefor all of California.
When an earthquake occurs shake maps are available online onthe World Wide Web to help save lives.
Carol Prentice: In 1906 the San Andreas Faultruptured to the ground surface and scientists were able to go out and map it along the entirelength of the rupture.
Which went from San Juan Batista almost 435 kilometers all theway up to Shelter Cove.
Up until recently aerial photographs like this were the besttechnology that we had for making maps of the fault and you can see in this area wehave a very dense redwood forest cover over the fault and its very difficult to see veryclearly where the fault is.
We now have a new technology called LIDAR that stands forLight Detection and Ranging.
And it involves an airborne mounted laser that sends energydown and allows us to create an image of the ground surface.
We actually get two imagesfrom LIDAR.
We get the image of the canopy top which is shown here, very similar reallyto the aerial photograph but what's great about the LIDAR is that you can create animage of the ground surface underneath the trees so that using the computer you can actuallystrip away this forest cover and you can see what's actually there beneath the trees andyou can see the San Andreas Fault very very clearly.
Right now we are standing right there.
Carol Prentice: We can use these images tohelp us pinpoint likely locations of good trench sites where we can do detailed studiesthat allow us to determine the timing of prehistoric earthquakes that allow us to determine howfast the fault has been moving through geologic time.
Tina Niemi: Paleo-seismology is the studyof earthquakes before instrumentation.
David Schwartz: Well one of the things wedo to study active faults is to put trenches across them.
And these trenches basicallyare, they're books for reading the past.
The top of the trench is the present day groundsurface we look down through the trench we see different layers each layer representsa period of time and we can really read the earth's history going back in time.
Tina Niemi: This is the longest record ofearthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault that's ever been studied.
What we have isten earthquakes over the last 2500 years.
At the time of the earthquake the ground rupturesto the ground surface and if forms like a fissure that fills in with material.
The fissurethen fills up with material on top of it in a flat lying way and by looking at the fissureshere, here's a big fissure and it was capped by the sediment on top of it so we're ableto date the fissure fill and the sediment on top of it to bracket the age of the earthquake.
David Schwartz: The idea is to build up aninventory of the times of past earthquakes to see if there is a pattern to see what kindsof variability there is and to use this information in helping us to forecast when the next oneis going to happen.
Dana King: Recent earthquake forecasts havebeen based on data from trenches like these across a number of Bay area faults.
How havescience and engineering helped to improve emergency response since 1906 stay tuned forthis incredible story.
Overlapping Voices: People all seemed to bein a daze.
Everything was confusion.
Hospital floor fell through.
hopelessly little helpcame.
All the water mains were broken.
Fire house and police station.
No post no telegram.
Thestreets in the neighborhoods were fast filling with refugees.
Dana King: Another clearly visible thing scientistsstudied after the 1906 earthquake was the emergency response.
It's estimated that therewere over 3,000 direct and indirect deaths after quake.
How many more lives could havebeen saved by better emergency response.
Well science is helping with valuable new toolslike the California Integrated Seismic Network and its CISN display.
Here's how it works.
Richard Eisner: We have a very dense seismicnetwork that has been jointly funded by California and the USGS.
That provides us with data withinseconds to minutes for large earthquakes in southern to northern California.
We've partneredin developing shakemap which is this display of real ground motion so we're not just talkingabout epicenter and size any longer we're talking about what the ground is actuallydoing under buildings under our communities.
David Oppenheimer: The way I like to thinkabout it is if you were standing over a puddle and you dropped a stone in it you would watchthe water waves go out and those water waves go out.
And those water waves are analogousto an earthquake.
The earthquake generates sound waves the stone dropping into the puddlegenerates water waves it's all the same phenomenon.
And we have little sensors in the puddle orseismic stations on the earth watching that soundwave go past and we pick that up instantaneouslywith our seismometers that signal is sent here within seconds we have computers thatare analyzing that signal and if they see there is an earth quake they report it welocate the earthquake, determine the location in terms of latitude and longitude the magnitudethat sets off a whole chain of activities one of which is the shakemap.
Dana King: Shake maps and other details onspecific quakes are delivered within minutes on CISN display.
This rapid delivery is crucialfor response for saving lives and for inspecting everything from roads to bridges, buildingsand more.
Richard Eisner: One of the things that we'vedone in California is that we've provided essentially realtime views of earthquakesthrough CISN Display, through shake map down to the emergency managers at the local levelso when an earthquake occurs they know whether they're at the edge of a very large earthquakeor in the middle of a small quake.
They know how to respond.
We're all having the samepicture of the ground motions within five or ten minutes after the earthquake so weknow whether we have to ramp up a state response or whether we can focus on local mutual aidto deal with the damage.
Loren Turner: Knowing something about theground shaking levels and something about the performance of our bridges and how theyrespond to certain ground shaking levels we can make an assessment of which bridges mayhave been impacted most by the earthquake.
We have CISN Display running at most of thetraffic management centers now and they'd be the first line response when an earthquakeoccurs they'd see that the earthquake occurred and they'd get epicenter and magnitude information,they'd get the shake maps as soon as those became available and they would be the onesthat would put our emergency operations centers in motion.
Edward Matsuda: What we have in place rightnow is a process where we take shake map information and we overlay it into our analysis program.
And the analysis program would do an analysis of every component in our system.
And giveus a map of the components that are damaged and the impact on system operations.
So, withina few minutes after future earthquakes we'll have that information available and that helpsus with our emergency response and what to do with our passengers and trains in our system.
Dana King: We're prepared to use realtimeshakemaps here at our studio and with these maps news organizations can swiftly providevital information to millions of viewers immediately after a quake.
And the bottom line is thatthese maps allow the media to provide faster more accurate information to help save lives.
Richard Eisner: The Bay area is particularlyvulnerable to the commute issue where you have people leaving there homes in the eastbay commuting in to the peninsula and may not be able to get home at the end of theday if there's an earthquake.
So we want to get information out as quickly as possibleto everyone.
Dana King: To best coordinate response followinga quake the State Office of Emergency Services has backup power and communications systemsbuilt to withstand worst case earthquake shaking.
When an earthquake ruptures an earth at thesurface that's easy to see, but to predict earthquakes, scientists need to learn what'sbelow the surface.
What are the underlying processes of the earth? Bill Ellsworth: The Earthquake Commissionfound that the San Andreas Fault shifted along this length of more than 200 miles, how isthat possible? How could the earth have shifted suddenly over such a great distance.
Therehad been no earthquake that had been seen like this before and it was a question thatconfounded scientists until the development of Plate Tectonics Theory in the 1960's.
David Schwartz: Plate Tectonics is the overallmodel of how different parts of the earths crust are moving relative to each another.
And the crust of the earth is broken up into major plates they slide past each other butover geologic time it builds up into a lot of slip that has to be accommodated.
Dana King: These great strides in understandingearthquake processes track directly back to the 1908 Lawson Report.
Bill Ellsworth: Perhaps one of the most importantresults that came out of this study was the development of Harry Fielding Reid's theoryof elastic rebound.
He used the information developed from land surveys that allowed himto measure the changes in land surface that had been caused by the earthquake.
This wassomething that had been understood in rough form before the earthquake but he developedthe first scientific theory about how forces accumulate along faults only to be releasedin earthquakes.
We call this the elastic rebound theory and it's the foundation really of ourmodern understanding of the earthquake process.
Ross Stein: If you can think of the crustas a slab of rubber and you're grabbing the rubber from the two sides and moving it pasteach other.
If the fault itself were Teflon the rubber would just move by and never bedistorted.
But because the fault has friction then the rubber gets distorted and stressesare built up on that surface so that process is very very slow, an inch a year.
And suddenlyat the time of the earthquake a very small piece of that very highly fractioned surfaceis going to let go and as it does so it starts slipping.
And in the space of a few secondsthat slippage speeds up from an inch a year to 5,000 miles an hour.
And that process thentears down the fault at these high speeds until it comes to a stuck patch where it canhang there for several seconds.
If it's going to be a large earthquake its going to burstthrough speed up again to 5,000 miles an hour and go flying into the next knot in the pieceof wood if you like, hang there and then burst through again.
David Schwartz: In parts of California wejust really have the San Andreas Fault, it's the major feature.
But, in places like theBay area the fault splays its like the trunk of a tree, comes into the Bay area, big branchescome out these are the major faults like the San Gregorio, and the San Andreas and theHayward and Rodgers Creek the Calaveras the Concord-Green Valley and they accommodatemost of the movement.
And then even little faults come off of them and they're like smallertwigs.
Each different sized fault produces different sized earthquakes and here in theBay area we have many faults of different sizes spread out across the entire region.
Mary Lou Zoback: Each of those faults couldproduce a damaging earthquake in fact taken together we think a damaging earthquake isnearly twice as likely to happen as not over the next 30 years.
Dana King: Earthquake information for theBay area, California and worldwide can be found at quake dot usgs dot gov.
Menu itemslink to things like Did You Feel It? Shakemaps and the earthquake information and preparednesshandbook Putting Down Roots.
Science now gives us all a way to clearly see and understandthe earthquake risk in our own lives.
Overlapping Voices: We looked down to CityHall you could see right through it.
Its great Grecian columns had crashed to the ground.
Thedome looked like a huge skeleton.
The masonry had been shaken away from the steel frame.
Dana King: When the 1906 earthquake destroyedcity hall no one knew how to rebuild it to resist future quakes.
Even if we learn howto predict earthquakes we still can't stop them.
There will still be damage to our buildingsand structures.
So, how are structural engineers learning to reduce that damage and save lives? Reinhard Ludke: The structural engineers inthe Bay area are developing new techniques and new technology that they are applyingin new buildings.
Plus, since Northridge and Loma Prieta they've developed new technologyand new techniques and guidelines that are being used nationally for retrofitting existingstructures.
This building incorporates two new techniques for steel frame buildings adog bone joint system and an eccentrically braced framing system and both of these systemswere developed and detailed so that the building can absorb and deform without failing withoutfalling down without killing people.
Reinhard Ludke: After Loma Prieta structuralengineers determined that the bridges didn't perform properly so they came up with a techniqueto jacket the columns with steel casings, these ten foot diameter steel casings providethe confinement so that the column has the ductility, strength to deform and make itthrough a big earthquake without this freeway collapsing and people getting killed.
Herewe are in Berkeley, California, this is a parking structure.
What the structural engineerdid to retrofit this building he put the lateral system on the exterior of the building.
Andthis is a conventional solution where they used a concentrically braced steel frame toprotect this building from falling down in a big earthquake.
Dana King: In the last 20 to 30 years engineershave made buildings a lot safer.
But, once structures are build to keep everyone alivethe question is can engineering save the building? In our region there are hundreds of thousandsof buildings at risk.
Reinhard Ludke: One new technique that engineershave developed over I'd say the last ten years, it's called performance based engineeringand because we have the capability with the technology and understanding the materialswe can tune the buildings to improve the performance.
So, if you have an owner that wants to havea building that not only survives an earthquake but remains functional after an earthquakewe can engineer the building so that you can get back into the building right after theearthquake and continue operations, like hospitals, like police stations, like fire stations.
David Bonowitz: You shake the building fromthe ground and you can imagine 50 miles in any direction the whole ground shaking.
Andanything sitting ontop of it will also shake.
Now buildings are not completely rigid, theyhave some flexibility so when you shake them at the bottom they sway back and forth andthey kind of wiggle around a little bit and the more they deform likely the more damageyou have.
So, if your can prevent the shaking from coming up into the building in the firstplace that's one really good way to limit your damage.
That's what isolation does.
David Bonowitz: Imagine if you could if wecould somehow float the building up above its foundation and separate it like that.
We can't quite do that yet but what we can do is isolate the building a little bit byinserting between the structure above and the foundation some kind of a flexible systemlike rubber pads or in this case a sliding kind of Teflon like substance so that whenthe ground shakes the building still shakes but a lot less than it would if it weren'tisolated.
So, here at the Court of Appeals there are 256 different isolators separatingthe structure above from the ground and its foundation.
Dana King: The 9th Circuit Court of Appealsin San Francisco is one of the growing number of buildings in the Bay area protected bybase isolation including city halls in Hayward, San Leandro, Oakland and San Francisco.
Eric Elsesser: We were very pleased to workon this project.
I'm a native San Franciscan, I've enjoyed the building from my birth andwhat we really saw was an opportunity to work on a national treasure one of the very specialbuildings in the country.
It desperately needed seismic strengthening.
It was damaged to somedegree in the earthquake and we found out as we analyzed it it was quite substantialdamage.
Eric Elsesser: This rotunda is the major themefor this building.
So, this entire area was redone, refinished and it looks just likeit did when it was built in 1915.
I feel very safe in the building.
It has a premium seismicsystem of base isolation which couldn't be better in the world and I think it will dojust fine in any earthquake.
So, the isolators support the walls, the walls support the spaceframe the space frame supports the drum and the dome above and the whole building is anchoredthat way.
When we look at base isolated buildings we are very very pleased with the outcomebecause we don't see any buildings that have been isolated that have collapsed in an earthquake.
Dana King: Damping systems which are reallyjust large pistons are another engineering approach in retrofits and new buildings thatreduce earthquake shaking.
Cutting edge research on building design to withstand earthquakesis taking place on what are known as shake tables.
Overlapping Voices: Hopelessly little helpcame.
market street was.
25 feet deep.
The three lower floors were completely crushed.
Not a soul escaped.
Automobiles carried out ambulance duty carrying the woundedand the dead.
Dana King: The largest outdoor shake tablein North America is at U.
San Diego where they test everything from response to shakingto the impact of a terrorist bombing.
Frieder Seible: A shake table is an earthquakesimulator in which we can build real structures and then send earthquake ground motions throughthe table.
This particular table here is the worlds first outdoor shake table there isno other facility like this in the world.
We can build structures of virtually any sizeon the table no height restrictions, no overhead crane capacity limitations to lift big thingson the table.
And this way we can really test full scale structural systems.
The effectof the building test which we just performed here was to show that we can design concretehigh rise buildings, that they can be designed much more economically than what the currentuniform building code allows us to do.
Namely by using less steel and less concrete in theshear wall you can actually show that the seismic performance actually improves ratherthan getting worse.
Jose Restrepo: Well what we have here arethe cables that will collect all of the data from the sensors, different kinds of sensors.
You can see these are displacement sensors that are seeing how the wall breaths actuallymoves up, opens up, big cracks.
These cracks here open about ¼ or an inch.
Dana King: The experiment was a great successas the building bent but didn't break experiencing what engineers described as just cosmeticimpacts from the simulated Northridge quake.
Freider Seible: What we are doing also hereat the Englekirk Center at UCSD is blast simulation.
So, we use the same power supply that drivesthis big shake table behind me also to simulate a bomb blast on full scale structural componentslike building columns, walls, floors, bridge columns, bridge sections and so on.
We fourvelocity generators, these are servo controlled hydraulic actuators very similar to the onesthat drive the shake table, the only real difference is that here we impart the forcesin one to two milliseconds.
The blast load causes shear failure at the ends of the columnsthen the shear failure propagates towards the column center.
Now when we take theseS-built columns and wrap them with these carbon fibers like you see here and then we put thesame blast load on which we had put on the columns in the back you can see here thatthe columns they're almost perfectly straight after the test, just the very top of the columnfailed a little bit.
Dana King: The work taking place at a networkof shake tables at west coast universities is delivering crucial advances to prepareCalifornia and the Bay area for the next big quake.
Lloyd Cluff: The greater San Francisco Bayarea, the nine Bay area counties has done an enormous amount particularly since theLoma Prieta earthquake in 1989 to become better prepared in terms of emergency response butmore important than that to actually understand the hazards and then to look at all of ourfacilities and to tackle the most vulnerable facilities in terms of infrastructure PG&E'sfacilities, the bridges, the highways and the water pipe lines and the sewers and everythingand to bring those facilities up to a standard that either they can be rapidly repaired andrestored or they're hardened enough so that they won't experience serious damage.
Stuart Nishenko: We're here at a PG&E worksite at California and 14th replacing old cast iron pipe like this here with new generationpoly-pipe that is going to be threaded through the old pipe under the street.
This is partof a 20 year program that PG&E has been doing since 1985 to replace about 2200 miles ofold vulnerable pipe in the San Francisco Bay area.
Residents of the Marina may rememberus putting in rolls of pipe after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake.
So, now we're doingit all over the Bay area and we're about 80% finished with the project.
Dana King: On a personal level individualsand families can take important steps to prepare for the disruptive aftermath of a future quake.
Jeff Lusk: Although the tremendous lossesfrom an earthquake and the enormous amount of money that is spent on retro fits thoseare staggering in terms of their dollar amounts people can spend a modest amount of moneyand take steps that will save them thousands of dollars and maybe displacement from theirhomes in the event of an earthquake.
Strapping your gas water heater and making sure thereare flexible connections so that that doesn't move around and you don't have gas leaks.
Some other things are securing the heavy furniture in your home you can take the time to boltsin through your book cases and tie them into the studs in your wall so those don't topover.
Taking care of these non-structural items.
Taking care of these things that arepriceless and can't be replaced like grandmas china and things like that.
Those things needto be secured with quake wax those are loses that we can more easily prevent in a moretypical moderate quake.
Big heavy TV's like we've got these days, flat panels and bigscreens those can do a lot of damage both to property and to people if those fall overon top of your during an actual event.
Dana King: Materials for securing items inhomes or businesses can be purchased at most hardware stores and premade disaster kitsthrough the American Red Cross.
Jeff Lusk: Please be ready to take care ofyour family and not just a kit, not a trashcan with some water and some food and some expiredprescriptions in it.
But, please think about everything you're going to need to be ableto stand on your own for 72 to 96 hours.
Amy Gaver: It's no time to try to find yoursupplies when earth shakes, the lights are out and you don't know where anything is.
You'll think you'll find them, they used to be in that cabinet but ya know the thing aboutearthquakes is things get tossed around.
So, if you wanna be able to find the things youneed you have them assembled into a kit.
Have the supplies you need where you need themat home, in the car in your workplace.
Jeff Lusk: And also not just to have a kitbut to have a plan how are you going to contact each other when these things happen? If I'mat work in San Francisco and my wife and kids are in the east bay how will I find them whenthe cell phones don't work anymore? The best thing to do is to have a phone number outsideof California that you can all call and leave a message I'm fine, here's where to find me.
These are critical things basically you need to take a look at your life and say if I hadno power, no water, o communications what would I do? And start to answer those questionsin a common sense way.
Overlapping Voices: I never expected to tocome out alive.
Everyone believed their last moment had come.
I've never seen anythinglike it.
I want to go home mama, I want to go home repeated the little one.
We haven'tany home dear.
Everyone believed there last moment had come.
Dana King: A major earthquake is likely tooccur here soon.
USGS and other scientists conclude there is a high probability of oneor more earthquakes of magnitude 6.
7 or greater striking the San Francisco Bay region by 2032.
What would really save lives is early warning.
Can we solve the ultimate mystery, how andwhere do earthquakes start? Bill Ellsworth: Will it be possible to givea warning before the next big earthquake such as the one that happened 100 years ago inCalifornia.
Scientifically we don't have an answer to that question.
We've been studyingearthquakes on the earth's surface for 100 years but we've been blocked from seeing insidethe machine that produces earthquakes.
Earthquakes occur deep in the earth under miles of rockand to understand what makes a fault what makes the machine creates earthquakes we haveto go inside it.
That's what we've recently done along the San Andreas Fault near thesmall town of Parkfield located about half way between San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Near Parkfield we've completed the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth.
It's the firstscientific drill hole into the heart of a major plate boundary fault.
Dana King: SAFOD is part of the larger NationalScience Foundation effort known as the Earthscope Initiative.
Steve Hickman: This is about understandingwhat makes the San Andreas Fault Zone tick.
Why do earthquakes start, are they predictable,what causes them to rupture to the surface and sometimes grow into really big earthquakes.
Bill Ellsworth: It's a region in which smallearthquakes occur at shallow depth so we can into them.
And these small earthquakes havea remarkable property.
The same earthquake occurs on the same part of the fault timeand time again.
We're drilling into earthquakes that are about the size of a football fieldthat's the area that ruptures in these small earthquakes about magnitude 2 and they recurabout every year or two.
So, it gives us a wonderful scientific target a place that wecan steer the drill bit along a two mile curving path to go right into the heart of the SanAndreas into these zones that produce these remarkable repeating earthquakes.
Steve Hickman: This is really about understandinghow earthquakes work and by gaining that understanding being able to better understand the hazardthey pose to society and hopefully reduce it.
Bill Ellsworth: So, it's going to be possibleover the 20 year lifetime of the observatory to watch many earthquakes, to watch the forcesas they build up and watch the process that then occurs as the fault goes from being lockedto unlocking at the speed of several thousand miles per hour as an earthquake rupture runsalong it.
Steve Hickman: What's kept us from being ableto predict earthquakes is a very poor understanding of what's happening directly within faultzones where earthquakes get started.
With SAFOD we have the first ever opportunity toget directly in a fault zone and see what's happening in the hours, days or even minutesbefore the next earthquake occurs.
By advancing our understanding of the science of what'shappening within the heart of the fault zone we can determine whether earthquake predictionis possible and how we should go about doing it.
Dana King: The SAFOD projects continuous monitoringof an active fault is a major advance in earthquake science.
It's a chance to answer that ultimatequestion how to predict when and where an earthquake will occur.
Stuart Nishenko: USGS and other groups havecome out and said there's a 2/3's chance in the next 30 years of a major earthquake herein the Bay area so that's provided a motivation for people to start improving the buildingsand the infrastructure in preparation for that.
Mary Lou Zoback: Future earthquakes will belarger and closer.
And, just as a comparison the 1906 earthquake was equivalent to theenergy release of 30 Loma Prieta Earthquakes occurring all at the same time.
Bill Ellsworth: In the longterm the way thatwe're going to be prepared for future earthquakes in California is by having structures thatwill resist there forces.
Dana King: Alexander McAdie wrote this in1906 to the state earthquake investigation committee.
The prime object should be to advisewisely to set forth the truth and to provide for research and investigation.
And in everyway work for the benefit and welfare for not only our community but all of mankind so faras the effects of earth movement are concerned.
Overlapping Voices: I was not willing to leaveSan Francisco then.
I wanted to stay to see the new city that would rise out of the ruins.
I felt that my place was there.
I had something to contribute even if only in a small measure.
Dana King: In 1906 it's estimated there wereover 3,000 deaths, 225,000 homeless in San Francisco alone, 28,000 buildings destroyed.
More than an 80 million dollar loss from the earthquake alone and another 320 million dollarloss from the fire which devastated the downtown behind me.
What will happen when the nextearthquake occurs? Bill Ellsworth: If we can succeed at understandingthe ultimate forces that earthquakes can deliver to the earths surface we'll be able to givevery clear guidance to engineers and architects so that they can build structures to resistfuture earthquakes.
To ensure that our critical facilities such as dams and bridges will notbe subject to failure in whatever earthquake may someday hit us.
Lloyd Cluff: Within the Bay area there's probablyover 100 distinguished earthquake scientists and engineers and many of those includingmyself live in the proximity of active faults.
Ross Stein: We recognize that we reap theriches of a landscape built through repeated earthquakes this is why we have the San FranciscoBay as a result of these faults.
It's why we have the wine country it's why we havethe beautiful climate.
If we're going to benefit from it then we also have to prepare for theoccasional bad things that these faults fire off at us.
And most people and most of thelaws and most of the desire on the part of the population is to build to survive earthquakesand to live safely among them.
Dana King: Quakes are going to happen in California.
An earthquake can hit at any time and it will surely be destructive.
But, with the amazingadvances in engineering and science and the commitment of the community to prepare andbe ready surely it will be less destructive and lives will be saved.